Development and validation of a predictive model for periodontitis using NHANES 2011–2012 data
(Journal of Clinical Periodontology; doi: 10.1111/jcpe.13098)
Eduardo Montero, David Herrera, Mariano Sanz, Sangeeta Dhir, Thomas Van Dyke, Corneliu Sima
Some people have periodontitis without recognising it. Researchers developed a model using routine health and demographic information to identify who might benefit from a detailed gum examination.
The analysis used 3,017 US adults who had more than fourteen teeth. It combined age, sex, ethnicity, smoking and HbA1c, a blood glucose measure, and compared the model’s classifications with full-mouth dental examinations.
The model identified about seven in ten people with moderate-to-severe periodontitis. It correctly classified about two-thirds of people without that level of disease. This means it both missed some affected people and flagged some who were not affected. Adding more measurements offered only a modest improvement in this dataset.
The model is a possible screening aid, not a diagnosis and not a prediction of future gum disease. A negative result would not rule periodontitis out. The model was checked within the same dataset rather than an independent population, so performance elsewhere remains uncertain. Personal or demographic characteristics should not replace an examination or be treated as destiny; the relevant question is whether they can help make appropriate assessment more accessible.
An experimental test can look promising in a carefully selected research sample but perform less well in everyday practice. It needs checking in independent groups, including people with other conditions that could affect the result. Researchers must also establish how often it misses disease or incorrectly suggests disease is present. Even good statistical performance does not automatically mean that using the test improves health. Until those questions are answered, these findings should be understood as test-development research rather than a replacement for established clinical assessment.
Read the full article Back to ResearchHosted by #diabeteschat, join Dr Varkha Rattu and the team behind the Periodontitis-Diabetes Hub for an insightful discussion exploring the importance of managing periodontitis and diabetes.
Read moreDr Antoniszczak will present a lecture about the oral health challenges among people living with diabetes. This lecture explores the key challenges faced by individuals living with diabetes, focusing on…
Read moreHosted by #diabeteschat, join Dr Varkha Rattu and the team behind the Periodontitis-Diabetes Hub for an insightful discussion exploring the importance of managing periodontitis and diabetes.
Read moreDr Antoniszczak will present a lecture about the oral health challenges among people living with diabetes. This lecture explores the key challenges faced by individuals living with diabetes, focusing on the relationship between diabetes and oral health.
Read morePeriodontitis is the 6th most prevalent condition globally
Periodontitis and diabetes are bidirectionally linked
Diabetic complications are increased if you have both diseases
Successful periodontal treatment can improve blood glucose control